Looking at an Analysis of El Nino 2023
A analytical essay came out 2023-12-14, authored by James Hansen, Makiko Sato, and Reto Ruedy.
It's called Global Warming Acceleration: El Nino Measuring Stick Looks Good
Here's the abstract:
Global warming is accelerating because the drive for warming, Earth’s energy imbalance, has doubled in the past decade. Measurement of the acceleration is hampered by unforced tropical (El Nino/La Nina) variability, but a good measuring stick is provided by warming between successive large El Ninos. Strengthening of the current (2023-24) El Nino has raised it to a level similar to the 1997-98 and 2015-16 El Ninos. The first six months of the current El Nino are 0.39°C warmer than the same six months of the 2015-16 El Nino, a global warming rate of 0.49°C/decade, consistent with expectation of a large acceleration of global warming. We expect the 12-month mean temperature by May 2024 to eliminate any doubt about global warming acceleration. Subsequent decline of the 12-month temperature below 1.5°C will likely be limited, confirming that the 1.5°C limit has already been passed.
Before we continue, I must say, it is 2023-12-24 - Christmas Eve for many settlers around me, and in the shade of our garden today, the high temeprature was 67f.
I'm not ready to say anything about that; I'm coping by reading and writing about this report.
Here's what that abstract is saying, in more plain of terms:
The Earth is getting hotter faster. The energy imbalance, like a fever for the planet, has doubled in just the last 10 years. This imbalance is mainly caused by greenhouse gases trapping heat, similar to a blanket. It's tricky to measure exactly how fast things are heating up. There are natural ups and downs in Earth's temperature, like El Niño and La Niña, which can mask the bigger trend. Think of it like ocean waves; sometimes they make it hard to see the tide rising.
But there are clues. This ongoing El Niño (2023-24) is as strong as the record-breaking ones in 1997-98 and 2015-16. And even in its first half, it's already pushed the global temperature 0.49°C warmer per decade compared to the last strong El Niño (2015-16). That's like running a race twice as fast! This suggests the acceleration is real. By May 2024, when we have a full year of data, we'll have a clearer picture. And the bad news is, even if the El Niño weakens then, the temperature might not drop back below 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. This suggests we might have already crossed that crucial threshold, a major concern for climate change.
In short, things are heating up fast, and the future looks warmer.
The paper goes on to mention at least one other critical point I picked up on my first skim:
The last three El Nino have been successively weaker. Comparing them points to an underestimation of global warming acceleration. This is because even a weaker El Niño adds warmth on top of the already rising baseline temperature due to greenhouse gases. It's like riding a small wave on top of a larger swell – the small wave might be weaker than previous ones, but the overall height you reach is still significant.
Temperature data paints a worrying picture:
- 2022 global mean temperature was already 1.16°C above pre-industrial levels (1880-1920).
- The 12-month running mean temperature has already climbed to 1.39°C.
- Projections suggest a further rise to at least 1.6°C in the next six months due to Earth's extreme energy imbalance.
The dramatic spike in September 2023 was even described as "gobsmackingly bananas" by climate scientist Zeke Hausfather.
Comparing El Niños reinforces the trend:
The six-month average temperature difference between 2023 and 2015 (the previous El Niño) is a worrying 0.39°C. This translates to a decadal warming rate of 0.49°C/decade, more than double the 1970-2010 rate of 0.18°C/decade. This aligns with expectations considering the additional post-2015 aerosol forcing, which further traps heat.
Overall, the weakening El Ninos might be masking the true extent of global warming. The strengthening of the current El Niño and the concerning temperature data suggest that things could be even hotter than we currently understand.
The paper reinforces a growing body of evidence for a perspective eloquently voiced by Edgar Allan Poe: