Extended analysis pieces examining the intelligence dimensions of the 2026 Iran war.
- The Prewar Intelligence Landscape — the intelligence community’s assessments and the assessment-policy gap
- Decapitation as Intelligence Operation — multi-discipline collection fused into time-sensitive targeting
- Asymmetric Escalation and Intelligence Requirements — tracking dispersed, multi-domain retaliation
- Iranian Counterintelligence Failure — structural factors behind the penetration of Iran’s security perimeter
- Post-Strike Narrative as Information Operation — operational intelligence disclosure as information operation
- Key Assumptions of the Strike Campaign — key assumptions check applied to the campaign’s strategic logic
- Iranian Strategic Culture and the Mirror-Imaging Problem — revolutionary identity, martyrdom, and strategic patience
- Economic Warfare as Intelligence Problem — the economic domain the military intelligence apparatus was not designed for
- Constraint-Based Analysis of Iranian Response — bounding the adversary’s action space when intent is opaque
- The Adversary as Legibility Problem — James C. Scott’s framework applied to intelligence
- The Decapitation Strike as Necropolitical Act — Mbembe’s necropolitics applied to sovereign killing
- The Compellence Failure — why the campaign’s compellent logic was self-defeating
- Proxy Networks as Complex Adaptive Systems — emergence without central direction
- Competing Hypotheses on Iran’s Post-Strike Strategy — ACH applied to the central post-strike question
- Scenario Analysis: Conflict Trajectories — cone of plausible futures with diagnostic indicators
- Reflexive Control and the Oman Channel — was the diplomatic track an exercise in shaping U.S. decisions?